| Course Type | Elective Course |
|---|
| Course Level | Bachelor's Degree |
|---|
| Year of Study | - |
|---|
| Semester | - |
|---|
| ECTS | 5 |
|---|
| Name of Lecturer(s) |
|
| Learning Outcomes |
At the end of this course, the students;
- Develop fundamental data analysis skills within the context of forecasting model development.
- Identify and classify methods and models used in business forecasting
- Have exposure to computer programs used for forecasting.
- Gain an ability to discuss results and propose recommendations based on forecasting results.
- Formally present business forecast solutions
|
| Mode of Delivery | Face to face |
|---|
| Prerequisites | No |
|---|
| Recommended Optional Programme Components | None |
|---|
| Course Description | Importance of forecasting in decision making process. Quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques. Time series analysis, moving averages and exponential smoothing. Other forecasting techniques. |
|---|
| Course Contents |
| WEEK |
TOPICS |
|
1st Week |
Role of forecasting in decision making. What is forecasting? |
|
2nd Week |
Review of statistical concepts |
|
3rd Week |
Data collection and analysis. Data Patterns |
|
4th Week |
Forecast evaluation techniques |
|
5th Week |
Moving Averages |
|
6th Week |
Exponential Smoothing |
|
7th Week |
Exponential smoothing with trend and seasonality |
|
8th Week |
Simple linear regression model |
|
9th Week |
Midterm |
|
10th Week |
Multi-variable regression models |
|
11th Week |
Time series analysis |
|
12th Week |
Box-Jenkins ARIMA models |
|
13th Week |
ARIMA Model Verifications |
|
14th Week |
Combining Forecasts |
|
| Recommended or Required Reading | Business Forecasting (9th Edition), John E. Hanke, Dean Wichern, Prentice Hall; 9 edition (2009)
Forecasting: Methods and Applications, Spyros Makridakis, Steven C. Wheelwright, Rob J. Hyndman, Wiley; 3 edition (December 1997)
|
|---|
| Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods |
- Lecture
- Case Study
- Presentation
- Problem Solving
- Discussion
- Project
- Questions/Answers
- Report Preparation
|
|---|
| Assessment Methods and Criteria |
|
Quantity |
Percentage (%) |
| Mid-term |
1 |
25 |
| Quiz |
1 |
15 |
| Project |
1 |
20 |
| Attendance |
1 |
5 |
| Total(%) |
|
65 |
| Contribution of In-term Studies to Overall Grade(%) |
|
65 |
| Contribution of Final Examination to Overall Grade(%) |
|
35 |
| Total(%) |
|
100 |
|
| ECTS Allocated Based on Student Workload |
| Activities |
Quantity |
Duration (Hour) |
Total Workload (Hour) |
| Midterm exam |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| Preparation for Quiz |
1 |
4 |
4 |
| Individual or group work |
14 |
2 |
28 |
| Preparation for Final exam |
1 |
25 |
25 |
| Course hours |
14 |
3 |
42 |
| Preparation for Midterm exam |
1 |
25 |
25 |
| Laboratory (including preparation) |
|
|
|
| Final exam |
1 |
2 |
2 |
| Homework |
1 |
8 |
8 |
| Total Work Load | 136 |
| Total Work Load / 30 (h) | 4.53 |
| ECTS Credit of the Course | 5 |
|
| Language of Instruction | Turkish |
|---|
| Work Placement(s) | No |
|---|
