Information Package
baskent.edu.tr

Program of Insurance and Risk Management

SİGO311

PROBABILTY THEORY

Course Code
SİGO311
Semester
Fifth Term (Fall)
Theory+Practice
3 + 0
ECTS
5
Course TypeCompulsory Course
Course LevelBachelor's Degree
Year of Study3
SemesterFifth Term (Fall)
ECTS5
Name of Lecturer(s)
Learning Outcomes

At the end of this course, the students;

  1. Understand basic probability concepts and gain the ability to calculate classical and conditional probability.
  2. Define the distributions of discrete and continuous random variables and apply these distributions to solve problems.
  3. Calculate the expected values and moments of random variables.
  4. Recognize binomial, Poisson, geometric, negative binomial, normal, Pareto, and exponential distributions used in insurance and apply these distributions to solve insurance-related problems.
Mode of DeliveryFace to face
PrerequisitesNo
Recommended Optional Programme ComponentsNone
Course DescriptionThe course covers topics such as basic probability definitions, conditional probability, the independence of two events, and the distributions of random variables. Additionally, the course introduces statistical distributions commonly used in actuarial science.
Course Contents
WEEK TOPICS
1st Week Concept of probability
2nd Week Conditional probability
3rd Week Independence of two events, random variables, and their distributions
4th Week Discrete random variables and their distributions
5th Week Discrete random variables and their distributions
6th Week Continuous random variables and their distributions
7th Week Continuous random variables and their distributions
8th Week Midterm exam
9th Week Expected values and moments
10th Week Discrete statistical distributions used in insurance (binomial, Poisson)
11th Week Discrete statistical distributions used in insurance (geometric, negative binomial)
12th Week Continuous statistical distributions used in insurance (normal)
13th Week Continuous statistical distributions used in insurance (exponential, Weibull, Pareto)
14th Week General review
Recommended or Required ReadingRoss, S. M. (2019). A First Course in Probability (10th ed.). Pearson.

Akdeniz, F. (2022). Olasılık ve İstatistik (23th ed.). Akademisyen Kitabevi.
Planned Learning Activities and Teaching Methods
  • Lecture
  • Questions/Answers
Assessment Methods and Criteria
Quantity Percentage (%)
Mid-term 1 30
Assignment 1 20
Total(%) 50
Contribution of In-term Studies to Overall Grade(%) 50
Contribution of Final Examination to Overall Grade(%) 50
Total(%) 100
ECTS Allocated Based on Student Workload
Activities Quantity Duration (Hour) Total Workload (Hour)
Midterm exam 1 1 1
Preparation for Quiz
Individual or group work 14 3 42
Preparation for Final exam 1 35 35
Course hours 13 3 39
Preparation for Midterm exam 1 20 20
Laboratory (including preparation)
Final exam 1 1 1
Homework 1 10 10
Total Work Load148
Total Work Load / 30 (h)4.93
ECTS Credit of the Course5
Language of InstructionTurkish
Work Placement(s)No

Programme Qualifications / Learning Outcomes

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K1 X X X X
K2
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K5
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K8 X X X X
K9
K10 X X X X
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